香港市场边缘化了吗？

Internet users in China are unleashing a churn of debate on the relevance of Hong Kong to the mainland economy, but some say the former British colony remains crucial as an investment environment which operates under the rule of law. As the economy in China continues to develop, some critics have called Hong Kong a parasite, referring to the enormity of its trade with the mainland. Online opinion has highlighted the rising importance of Shanghai as a major economic hub and the enormous economic gains cities on the mainland have made in recent years. Compared with 10 or 20 years ago, Hong Kong's position has dramatically changed amid global economic restructuring and the mainland's economy's newfound prominence. With closer connections between the mainland and global market, Hong Kong's role as an intermediary is also diminishing. But others point to the quality of the financial and legal institutions in Hong Kong which they say will ensure its standing as an international financial services center. The benefits of Hong Kong’s competitive education system, political pluralism and rule of law, they argue, have yet to be supplanted by mainland institutions. As the conversation on the image of the island continues, it’s clear that Hong Kong will remain a central destination in the region’s financial landscape. For Caixin Online, this is Diana Bates. 近期一些唱衰及奚落香港经济的声音不期然在网络间流行开来，甚至有人言之凿凿地认为，投资者应对香港市场用脚投票。 这些论调多来自内地，声称香港经济老态龙钟、不思进取到无法容忍的地步，软硬件方面已被世界和内地甩开了远不止几条街。更有一种看法认为，现在香港在全球及全国地位和竞争力都在下降，对内地的改革开放已无太多借鉴意义。“寄生性经济”这样的贬损之词也开始加诸香港。 这些唱衰论固然也提出了一些数据和理由，然而煽情和口水，毕竟并无助益。香港经济及其模式的重要性，显然还远未到可被轻视的地步。 单就经济数据而言，上述说法并非毫无根据。再过10多年，香港经济总量可能只相当于内地某个二线城市的水平；但是，这种“以规模论英雄”的逻辑未免过于偏颇。更重要的是，在可预见的将来，香港仍将能够为内地的改革开放提供宝贵的借鉴。近些年来，香港经济发展主要依赖高度发达的现代服务业，其经验连同教训，对于正在经历经济发展方式转型的内地来说，无疑是近水楼台的榜样，可少走许多弯路。 不过，数字只是一方面，如果因此就断言未来香港对于中国的改革是一座过河可拆之桥，则未免短视，甚至有几分势利。 中共十八届三中全会通过了《关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》，其引人注目之处，包括行政审批制度改革，建设有限政府，打造法治社会。核心是市场在资源配置方面要起到“决定性”作用。而自由市场和法治正是香港社会多年潜心发展和维护的核心竞争力所在。这一“软件”恰是内地不少城市的软肋。倘若没有这样的核心竞争力，纵然有多少高楼大厦拔地而起，投资环境也难称诱人。 香港经济高度依赖现代化服务业，其占GDP的比重在90%以上。其中，金融服务业、贸易与物流业、工商业相关支持服务业、旅游业是香港的四大经济支柱，此四行业为香港带来1万亿港元以上的增加值，约占到GDP的60%左右。 上述核心竞争力或无形资产的载体，主要是香港庞大的高素质的专业人才队伍。香港对全球专才可谓求贤若渴，有容乃大。而本土教育也颇有口碑，弹丸之地拥有港大、中文大学和港科大等多所知名学府。这对于内地提升人力资源品质显然也有借鉴意义。